Current News

12 Deteriorated Situations
Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Western Sahara, India-Pakistan, Kashmir Myanmar, South China Sea, Israel/Palestine/West Bank, Iraq, Cameroon, Sudan

Conflict Risk Alerts
Guatemala, Myanmar, Democratic Republic of Congo, Israel/Palestine/West Bank, Lebanon, Sudan

Resolution Opportunities - None

Global Overview - Our monthly conflict tracker highlights six conflict risks in December.

After efforts to extend a Qatar-brokered truce faltered, Israel resumed its onslaught in southern Gaza. The majority of the enclave’s nearly 2 million people are now in the south, many having fled Israel’s military campaign in the north. Already hundreds of Palestinians have died in the past few days of bombardments, adding to the 15,000 plus killed before the truce. Further massive killing and displacement seem almost inevitable.

In Lebanon, deadly border clashes between Hizbollah and Israel expanded in scale and scope, further heightening the risk of full-scale war in the coming weeks.

Election-related violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo could erupt around the 20 December vote amid widespread distrust in the process and fighting in the eastern province of North Kivu, where M23 rebels continue their advance (see this month’s Conflict in Focus).

In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces continued their multi-pronged offensive, leaving a trail of alleged atrocities in Darfur where the risk of all-out ethnic conflict remains, especially as more armed groups could be drawn in.

The military in Myanmar may step up its brutal response, including indiscriminate bombings, as it faces its most significant battlefield challenges since the February 2021 coup with ethnic armed groups launching attacks on multiple fronts.

Fears rose in Guatemala that President-elect Bernardo Arévalo could face more judicial persecution, including removal of his immunity or even an arrest, that would in turn fuel mass protests and unrest in December.

Read more: Crisis Group, https://is.gd/JVNDCr

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With All Eyes on Gaza, Israel Tightens Its Grip on the West Bank

The Israeli army has locked down the West Bank since 7 October, staging several incursions into Palestinian cities, as settler violence also rises. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Tahani Mustafa looks at the consequences of this escalation.

Conditions in the West Bank have deteriorated sharply in the weeks since Hamas’s 7 October attack in Israel, mostly in an acceleration of pre-existing trends. The Israeli army has launched numerous raids that, along with acts of violence by Israeli settlers, are taking a mounting toll. Meanwhile, the army has locked down the territory, closing roads and imposing restrictions on internal movement, while also cracking down severely on Palestinian political expression. The economy is paralysed, at particularly high cost to the olive harvest taking place in October and November.

West Bankers fear worse is coming. They are caught between, on the one hand, a deepening occupation and escalating violence from the army and settlers, and on the other, a complete absence of political leadership or a political horizon, leaving them with no real way of checking Israeli actions.

Read more: Crisis Watch, https://is.gd/HkYQP2